Bloomberg writer Elizabeth Elkin reported yesterday that “Fertilizer prices continue to climb to record highs as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine puts a massive part of the global fertilizer supply under threatadding to concerns about soaring global food inflation.
“A gauge prices for the ammonia nitrogen fertilizer in Tampa jumped 43% at $1,625 per metric ton on Friday, a recording for the 29-year-old index. Production stoppages and tight global supply lead the jump, according to a note from Bloomberg Intelligence.
“Rising costs of agricultural inputs such as fertilizer could send further food prices are skyrocketing,” the Bloomberg article said.
Also yesterday, Bloomberg writer Volodymyr Verbyany reported that “Ukraine could ease wheat export restrictions as early as next month, once it is certain that spring planting is progressing enough despite the Russian invasion, although the export capacity remains tense with some seaports effectively closed by the fighting, said an official who oversees the country’s trade.
Verbyany added that “the Eastern European nation is struggling to carry out its spring planting campaign in conditions it has not faced since World War II, with farmers having to work in fields under the constant risk of bombing and fighting. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that the areas sown could decrease by 30 to 50% compared to last year.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s James Poole reported today that, “Wheat prices maintained their biggest daily decline in more than a week like Indiathe second largest producer, seems ready to export a disk amount of grain over the coming year to help fill the gap left by the stifled supply from the Black Sea.
“Another bearish sign was a significant improvement in the state of Kansas winter wheat, which will be harvested in the coming months. Countering the mood to some extent was that Australia sold wheat “pretty well” in the first half of this year, and most of the available capacity is now in the second half.
Regarding US grain exports, Dow Jones writer Kirk Maltais reported yesterday that “export inspections for we. corn, soybeans and wheat all rose last week, with China being a leading destination for cereals.
“This week’s export inspection figures come as traders focus on nations replacing their exports from the Black Sea with other alternatives, with American cereals should be a highly sought-after choicesaid the Dow Jones article.
In other grain trade news, Reuters editor Julie Ingwersen reported yesterday that, “The following is a selection of highlights from a report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service. agriculture (USDA) (FAS) post in Cairo:
“Egypt closely follows the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. Certainly Egyptian grain imports of the two countries were affected. Accordingly, FAS Cairo provides Egyptian wheat imports in MY 2022/23 (July-June) at 11 MMT (million metric tons), down 8.3% based on MY 2021/22 Post import estimate figure of 12 MMT. Import and purchase of wheat from other markets remains a viable option for public and private purchases. wheat production in MY 2022/23 is up 8.9% from the previous marketing campaign.
Egypt has sufficient wheat stocks for its bread subsidy program until the end of calendar year 2022.
And Reuters editors Leigh Thomas, Aidan Lewis, Gus Trompiz and John Irish yesterday reported that “France will ensure that Egypt gets the wheat it needs in the coming months as war in Ukraine creates supply risks for grain-importing countries, says French finance minister Bruno the Mayor said Monday.
Wall Street Journal writer Yuka Hayashi reported yesterday that “Egyptthe world’s largest wheat importer, has already felt the economic stress of war. Last week he asked for financial support of the International Monetary Fund.
Also yesterday, Reuters writer Moataz Mohamed reported that “Bahrain’s wheat reserves are sufficient for about 4.5 months of consumptionlocal newspaper Al-ayam reported on Monday quoting Marwan Tabbara, Bahrain’s mill chairman.
Meanwhile, Reuters writer Rajendra Jadhav reported today that “India contracted 45,000 tonnes of Russian sunflower oil at a record price for shipments in April as prices of edible oils in the local market have jumped after supplies from rival Ukraine were cut off, five industry officials told Reuters.
More broadly in the edible oil market, Bloomberg writers Anuradha Raghu and Pratik Parija yesterday reported that “Shortages of cooking oil have worsened since last year. In Malaysia—world’s second largest producer of palm oil—production dropped drastically due to a chronic labor shortage. Then Drought decimated the canola harvest in canada and slashed soybean crops Brazil and Argentina. Buyers were planning to stock up on sunflower oil from Ukraine and Russia, which together account for approximately 75% of world exports. The invasion put an end to this possibility.
“The market reacted quickly. Prices of the four main cooking oils (palm, soybean, rapeseed and sunflower) have soaredand the rally should trickle down to buyers in the form of higher costs for everything from candy to chocolate.
Considering the prospects for seedlings in the United States, Bloomberg writer Nancy Cook reported yesterday that, “american farmers will react to “price signals” and increase their production to avoid any domestic food shortages resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the White House’s chief economist said Monday.
“‘We don’t expect a shortage here, as we are net exporters’, Cecile Rousseau, the chairman of President Joe Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, told reporters during a briefing. ‘But we are very up to date because there is regions of the world which are highly dependent on wheat exports in particular and other cereals from Ukraine and Russia.
“She predicted that American farmers adjust and increase their planting take advantage of higher prices.”